It’s undebatable that Jett Lawrence has been on a tear in AMA Pro Motocross competition.
The 450cc class rookie has cleanly and somewhat miraculously swept the opening half of the outdoor season, which has included 14 consecutive moto wins and seven overall event victories.
Looking at the history books, Lawrence is one of very few riders to have finished 1-1 in their debut motocross race in the premier class — others in the modern era of the sport include Ricky Carmichael (2000), Ryan Villipoto (2009) and Jeffrey Herlings (2017).
Not to mention, Lawrence has repeatedly shown up veteran 450 riders such as 2021 motocross champion Dylan Ferrandis, former 250cc class champion Aaron Plessinger and this year’s AMA Supercross champion Chase Sexton.
Despite the breakneck pace Lawrence has been setting on the motocross track, there is one question worth debate.
Would this still be happening if defending motocross champion Eli Tomac was competing?
It’s been nearly two months since Tomac tore his Achilles tendon during the penultimate round of the Supercross season.
The injury — which has an average recovery timeline of four-to-six months — swiftly dashed his hopes of a third Supercross title and defending his motocross championship.
Instead of joining his 450 class compatriots on the Pro Motocross starting gate in late May, Tomac essentially dropped off the map to focus on his recovery.
To add to the complexity and mystery of Tomac’s exit from the scene, this year was allegedly meant to be the Star Racing Yamaha rider’s final professional season. Other than reporting about his successful surgery on May 7, Tomac has remained silent, keeping his legion of fans anxiously anticipating his next words.
Would he come back in 2024, or was that all we’d see of Tomac?
Over the last month and a half, with Pro Motocross raging on without the four-time motocross champion, the headlines have been dominated by 19-year-old Lawrence.
While the summer series has played host to some captivating battles between Lawrence, Sexton, Ferrandis and one-off rider Ken Roczen, it’s been a bittersweet taste of what life may be like when Tomac officially calls it quits.
For years, Tomac has been the main character in the “start from the back, move to the front” story, with a number of his motocross wins coming after a back-of-the-pack start. But whether he came from 40th or fourth, there was no doubt that the four-time motocross champion was often dominant.
It’s worth noting the Colorado native was also the first rider to win his inaugural national motocross race in the 250 class — the 2010 Hangtown Motocross Classic. (Ring any bells with Lawrence’s 450 debut?)
But last year, Tomac became a new version of himself: The calm veteran.
The 30-year-old steadily fended off 23-year-old Sexton for the motocross championship, which came down to the wire in a thrilling, winner-take-all finale at California’s Fox Raceway.
One has to wonder, would Tomac’s combination of experience and speed have reigned supreme over a rookie rider such as Lawrence?
While Tomac has yet to announce his 2024 plans, he broke his social media silence on July 20, sharing an “Achilles update” over his Instagram story.
In the two photos shared, Tomac demonstrated considerable mobility and extraordinary progress in his Achilles recovery. Exactly what that means, the two-time Supercross champion didn’t say.
But it’s a promising sign that there may indeed be Lawrence vs. Tomac battles ahead.
“I would give up my right arm to go race up against Ricky Carmichael or James Stewart back on their last years, so it sucks. Hopefully Eli (Tomac) can come back next year and I get to race him, because it would be an awesome experience to race a legend like himself,” Lawrence said on the night of Tomac’s season-ending Supercross injury.
While it may be a little selfish, this observer also hopes that’s exactly what happens.