Only four races remain in the NASCAR Cup Series regular season before the playoff field is set to 16 drivers.
There are currently 12 drivers locked into the playoffs via victories. They are: Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, William Byron, Christopher Bell, Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott, Tyler Reddick, Brad Keselowski, Alex Bowman, Joey Logano, Daniel Suarez and Austin Cindric.
Any full-time driver not on this list, who wins one of the final four races, will also lock into the playoffs.
Let’s examine the fight for the final four positions in the playoffs among the highest-ranking drivers in points:
13. Martin Truex Jr. (+108)
In his final full-time season, Martin Truex Jr. looks to be safe for the time being with a 108-point margin above the cutline.
While his farewell tour hasn’t been filled with victory lane celebrations, Truex has shined at times. At Richmond (Va.) Raceway earlier in the season, the driver of the No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota dominated as he led 228 of the 407 laps.
Truex looked to be the favorite until a late-race caution cost the 2017 Cup Series champion a sure-fire win.
The next race on the schedule after the Olympic break is Aug. 11 at Richmond.
Stats: 22 starts, 4 top fives, 9 top 10s, 14.6 avg. finish
14. Ty Gibbs (+42)
Truex’s teammate Ty Gibbs has shown flashes of brilliance, however, the grandson of team owner Joe Gibbs has yet to reach victory lane in the Cup Series.
The second-year driver has one runner-up finish (Darlington Raceway) along with two pole positions.
Notably, Gibbs led 137 laps at Bristol (Tenn.) Motor Speedway in March before tire wear got the better of the driver of the No. 54 Toyota as he finished ninth, one lap down.
Stats: 22 starts, 5 top fives, 9 top 10s, 15.1 avg. finish
15. Chris Buescher (+17)
It’s been a season of what-ifs for Chris Buescher. The RFK Racing driver missed out on a win at Kansas Speedway by a mere 0.001 seconds to Kyle Larson.
A week later, Buescher tangled with Tyler Reddick while battling for the lead, causing both drivers to get flat tires.
Buescher has two runner-up results (Phoenix Raceway, Kansas). Notably, Buescher won three races last year in the final stretch to the playoffs with victories at Richmond, Michigan Int’l Speedway and Daytona (Fla.) Int’l Speedway.
Stats: 22 starts, 5 top fives, 9 top 10s, 14.3 avg. finish
16. Ross Chastain (+7)
Ross Chastain has flown under the radar this season. While he’s currently in playoff position, he’s yet to have a dominant performance like he’s had in his last two years with Trackhouse Racing.
The driver of the No. 1 Chevrolet has struggled the last handful of weeks with finishes of 15th or worse in the last four races.
The break in the schedule was a welcome one for the No. 1 team as it looked to reignite its playoff chase.
Stats: 22 starts, 2 top fives, 7 top 10s, 14.9 avg. finish
17. Bubba Wallace (-7)
Just like last year, Bubba Wallace is on the playoff bubble. The 23XI Racing driver has shown flashes of consistency, however, he hasn’t had the pace of teammate Reddick.
Reddick is third in the standings with a series-leading 15 top-10 finishes.
Wallace, however, is beginning to heat up. Over his last four races, he’s finished 13th or better, including a stellar fifth-place finish in the Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.
Stats: 4 top fives, 8 top 10s, 16.3 avg. finish
18. Chase Briscoe (-83)
In his final season aboard his hero Tony Stewart’s famed No. 14 Ford, Chase Briscoe may need to start gambling during the final four races.
Eighty-three points behind the cutline isn’t insurmountable, however, it’d be difficult to make up a major chunk of ground.
Briscoe finished second at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, his best result of the season.
As Stewart-Haas Racing’s closest driver on points in the playoff conversation before the team shuts its doors at season’s end, the pressure is on Briscoe to give SHR one more shot at Cup Series championship glory.
Stats: 2 top fives, 6 top 10s, 17.5 avg. finish
19. Kyle Busch (-112)
Kyle Busch’s frustrating 2024 season has only grown worse.
Less than a year removed from a three-win season in his first season with Richard Childress Racing and Busch is more than 100 points out of the playoffs.
Six of Busch’s last eight races resulted in finishes of 25th or worse, which has included four crashes aboard the No. 8 Chevrolet.
The two-time Cup Series champion will need a victory if he’s to lock into the 16-driver playoffs.
Stats: 22 starts, 2 top fives, 6 top 10s, 19.7 avg. finish
20. Todd Gilliland (-118)
While Todd Gilliland will need a victory to reach the playoffs, his season has been underrated.
Aboard Front Row Motorsports’ No. 38 Ford, the third-generation driver has bagged 10 top-17 finishes in the last 11 races.
That stretch is highlighted by a sixth-place finish at Indianapolis.
With teammate Michael McDowell’s impending exit from the team at season’s end, Gilliland is taking on the role as the team’s lead driver.
Stats: 22 starts, 0 top fives, 4 top 10s, 19.0 avg. finish